The hottest spot market is at a crossroads, and th

The spot market is at the crossroads, and the construction needs not to forget the original intention.

the introduction of the basic concept of power spot trading is the same age as the reform and opening up. The concept of economic dispatching under security constraints (the basis of power real-time market) can be seen in domestic literature, almost synchronized with the Third Plenary Session of the Eleventh Central Committee. However, it is difficult from concept to practice. Since the beginning of this century, Zhejiang Province took the lead in piloting compulsory power depots nationwide, and the State Electricity Regulatory Commission piloted the East China regional power (spot) market; It has been nearly 20 years since the No. 9 document proposed the content of "real-time trading", the supporting document II refined the construction of the power spot market as the "standard configuration" of the modern power market, and then this round of Zhejiang Province first proposed to promote the comprehensive reform of the power system with the power spot market as the core. The practice of the power spot market has been tortuous in China. It was not until August 2017 that the national development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration issued the notice on carrying out the pilot work of the construction of the power spot market that the curtain was lifted on the large-scale construction of the power spot market, and the power spot market finally became the mainstream voice of the industry operation mechanism. At this point, the experts who introduced the concept of electricity market have reached an old age, and they have to lament the difficulty of popularizing the correct concept. The power spot market opened is not overwhelming. Under the situation of cooking oil with fire and flowers, hidden worries have emerged. The objective problems need the consensus of all parties with Prajna power. Market builders must keep their mission in mind, not forget their original intentions, and jointly promote

01 the crossroads caused by practical difficulties

2018 can be called the "first year of spot" of this round of power reform. The discussion on the main issues of Zhejiang market design, the draft of Guangdong rule system, and the plans of Shanxi, Gansu, and Fujian have been seen in the world through different channels. The change is more than that. At the beginning of the energy storage inspired by the spot concept to participate in the power system boom and the development of China's local simulation system, there is also news that foreign companies engaged in power financial derivatives business have opened offices in China. Although the spot market has not been landing (no real settlement has been achieved), the new business format based on spot New technology and new but how to check? 1. Generally, most of the jobs caused by improper use and incorrect installation methods have appeared. Before it is too late to cheer for the early progress of power spot, the problems encountered at the beginning of practical operation have given birth to the crossroads of the power spot market, left or right, or straight ahead? How to deal with it may be related to how long the power spot market construction will take and how much tuition fees to pay. Since there is no way for any region to leap from the planned system to the market mechanism in one step, objectively existing practical problems may force some pilot regions to make a lot of compromises (to the plan) in the initial design of the plan. From the known information, these problems have certain commonalities:

first, how to implement the industrial policies formed in the history of units other than coal-fired power plants. Although the current situation of coal-fired power is poor, coal-fired power has neither the full amount of renewable energy requirements, nor the subsidy requirements of renewable energy and gas-fired units, nor the reactor nuclear safety of nuclear power units. Generally speaking, coal power is a "child who can cry but can't cry", which is naturally easy to arrange - enter the market directly. Other units enjoy some preferential industrial policies: renewable energy has a policy requirement of full amount, but the stability of renewable energy output makes it difficult to agree (deliver) curves with users in medium and long-term contracts, and the income from entering the market will face uncertainty; Gas turbines (representatives of the so-called "high-cost units") have high costs due to fuel, and are mostly operated in the form of government subsidies (often subsidies are their profits). If they compete with coal-fired power, the "possible" income will be reduced. At the same time, in order to ensure heat supply, gas turbines with heat supply are likely to be forced to generate electricity at a loss price. Naturally, there are great opinions

second, how can a large number of users who do not have the ability to manage the power consumption curve sign the power consumption curve in the medium and long-term contract immediately (the power generation and consumption are consistent). With the continuous promotion of the liberalization of power generation and consumption plan, more and more power users enter the market, but most users do not have the capacity of load management. Even the power supply companies that are most familiar with load forecasting only regard users as a whole in history, mainly concerned with the simultaneity rate of the maximum load stage, and did not pay attention to the power consumption curve of each user. However, with the promotion of spot construction, both the physical delivery power generation curve agreed in the physical contract and the financial delivery power generation curve signed in the price difference contract are a test for users - if the power consumption curve is not accurately managed, the economic benefits may be damaged. Some designers believe that this poses a great risk to users in a short time, which may "make users oppose the spot electricity pilot"

the third is the boundary condition of who does what in the market and between markets. At present, all provinces in China have certain electrical connections with other provinces, and there will be a certain amount of energy exchange. The construction of the spot market with the province as the market scope involves the sequence of transactions between provinces and the market if the spot market is opened. At present, the organizers of inter market transactions and intra market transactions have a certain relationship between superiors and subordinates. How to deal with inter market transactions and intra market transactions has become a difficult question to answer. Whether the clearing result in the province is the boundary of inter market transactions or the boundary of intra market transactions, users will also be very confused. Which market is better to participate in and which market price will be lower

Fourth, how to reflect the requirements of government macro-control. Electricity price and electricity plan have long been the tools for local governments to regulate the economy and cultivate advantageous industries. How can the spot market be designed to cultivate advantageous industries and realize the role of the government in regulating the economy? In particular, at present, there is a strong voice to reduce the cost of the real economy, and the sharp fluctuations in the spot market price are the main thrust of our development since the beginning. The peak price is far higher than the approved electricity price, and the trough price is far lower than the approved electricity price. Not to mention the sharp rise in fuel prices in recent years, which has continued to be high. Some local governments judge that at present, they have relied on the planning mechanism to suppress the dredging cost, After the opening of the spot market, it is likely that the electricity price will rise sharply for users who only use electricity during peak hours and located in the load center (electricity habits and places are not friendly to the system). Especially if this user plays a great role in local government taxation and employment, how to avoid this risk

in addition to the compromise of the electric energy market, some designers are worried that the price cannot guide the system to reduce the low power (market members force power generation at a loss irrationally), and the power generation during the low period may not be reduced in place, making it difficult to ensure the safe operation of the system

although these difficulties can be solved through market-oriented means, the opinions of all parties are difficult to be unified in market-oriented means, and often in compromise solutions. The reason is that the enterprising party believes that at least some plans have been moved, which is more market-oriented than in the past (pure planning mechanism), and the conservative party believes that the general interests have not been moved is acceptable. These difficulties in design actually make the construction of the spot market come to a crossroads. Some pilots choose to wait and resolutely do not "work with injuries"; Some pilots have not yet had a clear understanding, and compromise views have prevailed, and some "classic" compromise solutions have also been put forward

02 "classic" compromise plan at the intersection

from the understanding, market designers have made great efforts to persuade the proponents, but in some pilot areas, they can only sigh with regret about local characteristics, comfort themselves with the sentence "half a step is better than no step" and accept the design compromise plan. The so-called "classic" compromise scheme is essentially to increase the planning and scheduling factors in the scheme. In view of the above four common disputes, the usual compromises are as follows:

first, design a dual track system. Set conventional units (mainly coal-fired power units) as a class, without special policies, care, and obligations that cannot be borne by themselves and others. In the spot market, the person who should participate in the day ahead market should participate in the day ahead market, the person who should participate in the real-time market should participate in the real-time market, the contract should be broken down, and the bidding; For other units, what policies have been enjoyed in history will continue to be enjoyed, and the planned dispatching method will remain unchanged as the boundary condition of bidding units (mainly coal-fired power units). Of course, these two categories are also divided according to the local and middle note, and even the same unit in the market unit. The priority generation contract is implemented according to the planned scheduling, and the market contract is implemented according to the spot market rules. There will also be "multiple points" approach of market classification, geographical division and unit classification with more emphasis on the dual track plan

the second is to maintain the two twists and turns of the existing direct trading methods. Maintaining the current medium and long-term trading mechanism dominated by direct transactions, both parties to the contract do not need to agree on the physical curve or financial curve of contract delivery in the contract. In some regions, the reference settlement curve is issued by the dispatcher, and the index characteristics of medium and long-term transaction targets are obvious. Why is it that the characteristics of the power index of the subject matter of direct transaction are still obvious without agreeing to generate and use a consistent curve? Under the planning system, the plan allocated by the government to power generation enterprises is called power generation index. It is an index rather than a commodity, because the index has three "unknown" characteristics. The first is that it does not know which user the power is finally given to, the second is that it does not know when to give it to the user (the planned scheduling uniformly arranges production), and the third is that it does not know what power to deliver (scheduling the specified power). The current direct transaction can only solve the first "don't know" (I know it financially), and can't answer the remaining two "don't know". However, in commodity trading, both parties must clearly agree with whom to trade, when and where to deliver goods, and how much to deliver. This is the common feature of general commodity trading

third, one of the designated intra market transactions and inter market transactions has priority. Generally, the inter market transaction is regarded as the boundary of intra market transaction when entering the province, and the intra market transaction when sending out the province is regarded as the boundary of inter market transaction. Unfortunately, such a design does not solve the problem of forcing users in the market (users must belong to a certain market) to face two markets and need to bear the risk of judging who has the lowest transaction price in the two markets. Users will inevitably object. Therefore, inter market transactions often need to take the power enterprises in the power receiving region as the buyers, and power users are not allowed to participate directly (users in the power receiving province and the power transmission province). This practice is not flawless. According to the relevant regulations formulated in the preferential power generation and power balance plan, for the incoming Province, all load demand in the province minus the preferential power generation and trading power such as mandatory calls and renewable power in the province, and the rest is distributed to the power supply in the province in the form of base power. The purchased power space system of the provincial company does not exist. On the other hand, for the sending out province, the inter market transaction purchases the electricity above the transaction price in the province (the low price has been reserved in the province). How to ensure the transaction? If there is no deal, do you still need to give feedback and clear again in the province? The contradiction caused by this "designation" gives market players a headache

fourth, the comprehensive treatment of "compound drugs" such as segmenting the spot market and giving low price caps is achieved